USD/CHF off 11-week high with focus on US election outcome

The USD/CHF currency pair extended losses on Tuesday ahead of the outcome of the US presidential election.

The greenback retreated at the start of the week after an opinion poll over the weekend showed a surprise lead for Democrat Kamala Harris in Iowa, which is a traditional Republican stronghold. However, as a whole, polls continue to show a tight contest.

“We judge financial markets are now positioned for a Harris win,” Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, was quoted as saying by Reuters.

“The USD can therefore fall modestly by 1%‑2% this week if Vice President Harris wins and lift materially if (former) President Trump wins. Any delays and/or disputes over vote counting can also add to currency volatility this week.”

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision will be another highlight this week.

The Fed is widely expected to cut its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% at its November meeting.

In September, the Fed began its monetary easing cycle with an out-sized rate cut (by 50 bps), which has been the first reduction in borrowing costs since March 2020.

The US central bank indicated confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the 2% target and took action to prevent a slowdown in the labor market.

Meanwhile, on the data front, Switzerland’s unemployment rate was reported to have remained steady at 2.5% in October.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 3,202 from September to a 32-month high of 116,447.

As of 10:14 GMT on Tuesday the USD/CHF currency pair was edging down 0.19% to trade at 0.8623.

The major Forex pair has eased from an 11-week high of 0.8710, which it registered on November 1st.