USD/KRW trades near 1-week high on 25 bps Fed rate cut bets

The USD/KRW currency pair held close to a one-week high of 1,341.15 on Monday, as market players trimmed bets on aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

Since the closely watched US PCE inflation has held stable in July, this reduced the need for a substantial Fed interest rate cut in September.

Markets are now pricing in about a 33% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut this month, compared to 36% a week ago, and a 67% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Still, markets continued to price in 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, on the macro data front, factory activity growth in South Korea accelerated in August, with production expanding at the fastest rate in over three years.

Also, the nation’s trade surplus rose to $3.83 billion in August from $1.03 billion in the same month of 2023.

Total exports surged 11.4% year-on-year to a three-month high of $57.9 billion in August, while growing for an eleventh consecutive month on strong semiconductor demand.

As of 10:29 GMT on Monday the USD/KRW currency pair was edging up 0.14% to trade at 1,338.37.