USD/NOK off 1-month high ahead of CPI, presidential debate

The USD/NOK currency pair pulled back from a fresh one-month high of 10.8628 on Tuesday after Norwegian CPI inflation data and ahead of the key US CPI inflation report that may affect the Fed’s interest rate cut trajectory.

Annual headline consumer inflation in the United States probably eased to 2.6% in August, according to market consensus, from 2.9% in July.

Annual core CPI inflation probably steadied at 3.2% in August, which has been the lowest rate since April 2021.

Markets are now pricing in about a 27% chance of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and a 73% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Also on investors’ radar will be the televised US presidential debate later on Tuesday.

“The dollar will probably be more favored under a Trump presidency than a Harris presidency, as Mr. Trump might favor more tax relief to boost growth, a more protectionist stance on trade and more isolationist U.S. foreign policy,” Unicredit Research analysts wrote in an investor note.

Meanwhile, data out of Norway showed annual consumer inflation had eased to 2.6% in August from 2.8% in July. Market consensus had pointed to an acceleration to 3.5%.

Norway’s annual inflation adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) was reported at 3.2% in August, while slowing from 3.3% in July.

As of 11:15 GMT on Tuesday the USD/NOK currency pair was losing 0.52% to trade at 10.7778.