USD/SEK settles below 6-week high, posts weekly gain

The USD/SEK currency pair settled below recent high of 9.5618, its strongest level since August 27th, as market players were on watch for signs on when the US federal government will reopen and publish data, which could shape the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory.

The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of essential macro data, which complicated assessments of the US economy’s state, as investors had to rely on secondary, non-government data prints.

According to a report by the New York Times, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is bringing some furloughed employees back in order to release the statistical agency’s key report on inflation despite the wider shutdown of the federal government.

The minutes of the FOMC’s September meeting showed that policy makers agreed risks to the US job market were sufficiently high to warrant a rate cut.

Yet, a majority emphasized the risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside.

Markets are now pricing in about a 94.5% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October and an 81.5% chance of another 25 bps cut in December.

Meanwhile, Sweden’s economy grew 1.1% month-over-month in August, data showed, following a 0.3% contraction in July.

Growth was driven by private production (+0.9% month-over-month) and household consumption (+0.4% month-over-month).

In annual terms, Sweden’s GDP rose 2.4% in August, after a revised down 1.9% growth in July.