USD/ZAR gains ahead of President Ramaphosa’s address

The USD/ZAR currency pair firmed on Thursday, reversing the loss from the prior day, ahead of South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa’s national address and as risk of a global trade war seemed to have receded.

“It appears that the market has started to put the tariff threats against Mexico and Canada in the rear view mirror and is treating the China tariffs as business as usual,” James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera, was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Investors are now looking to the crucial US Non-Farm Payrolls report tomorrow for more insight into macroeconomic conditions and the Fed’s future interest rate path.

Employers in all sectors of the US economy, excluding farming, probably added 170,000 job positions in January, according to market consensus, following a job growth of 256,000 in December (the most since March 2024).

Markets now expect two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. A 25 basis point rate reduction in July has been fully priced in and another 25 bps cut is expected prior to year-end.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said this week he was content to maintain the policy rate at current level until policy makers obtained a better sense of the net effects of the Trump administration’s policies regarding tariffs, immigration, deregulation and taxes.

Elsewhere, Rand traders will be paying attention to South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa’s annual State of the Nation Address (SONA), which may provide clarity on economic reforms and the government’s approach to structural challenges.

According to ETM Analytics, Ramaphosa will seek to use the opportunity of SONA to present South Africa’s future efforts in a better light.

The USD/ZAR pair was last up 0.72% to trade at 18.6626.